Moneylines

A moneyline Glossary Moneyline A bet on who wins the game outright, no points involved. Favorites cost more than they pay; underdogs pay more than they cost. Full glossary is the simplest bet there is: pick the team that wins the game. No points. The price does all the work.

Hawks−15060.0%

Owls+13043.5%

• Hawks −150: risk 1.5u to win 1u (or risk 1u to win 0.67u).
• Owls +130: risk 1u to win 1.2999999999999998u.

The percentages on the right are the implied probabilities from lesson 1.

Taking out the vig

Add the two sides: 60.0% + 43.5% = 103.5%. The extra over 100% is the vig Glossary Vig (juice) The sportsbook’s built-in cut. It’s why both sides of a spread are usually −110 instead of +100: you risk 1.1u to win 1u. Full glossary Lesson: Reading odds again. Scale both down so they add to 100% and you get the no-vig probability Glossary No-vig probability A price’s implied probability with the vig taken out, so the two sides add up to exactly 100%. A cleaner read of what the market thinks. Full glossary :

Hawks: 60.0% ÷ 103.5% = 58.0% Owls: 43.5% ÷ 103.5% = 42.0%

That’s a cleaner read of what this market thinks: Hawks about 58%, Owls about 42%.

Moneyline or spread?

A moneyline asks “who wins?” A spread asks “who wins, and by how much?” With the same final score they can grade differently.

Hawks moneyline −150W

Hawks −3 (spread)P

Hawks −3.5 (spread)L

Big favorites aren’t “safe”

A −400 favorite implies 80.0%. You risk 4u to win 1u, so one loss wipes out four wins. And even that price says the favorite loses about 1 game in 5. The price already reflects how good the team is.

Quick checkWhat win chance does +200 imply?Tap to see the answer

33.3%. 100 ÷ (200 + 100) = one in three.