Graded every Tuesday · through NFL Week 4 / CFB Week 5

Public record

All FRD picks25–21–2

+4.33u

Win rate54.3%pushes excluded

ROI+8.8%units won ÷ units risked

Beat the close6 of 33= 21 · missed 6

By week 48 picks, losses included

NFL Week 5 0–0 Closing lines not logged 0.00u

Baltimore +3.5 Baltimore @ Atlanta · 1u · −118 Why: Line swung 10 pts on Lamar Jackson's ankle. We take the hook past 3. —

Under 40 Cleveland @ NY Jets · 1u · −115 Why: Rain near 90% from the 2nd quarter on. Total flat since the forecast. —

CFB Week 6 0–0 Closing lines not logged 0.00u

UCLA +11.5 UCLA @ Oregon · 0.5u · −107 Why: Oregon QB Dante Moore expected out (concussion). Line has moved only 1 pt. —

Under 51.5 Kansas @ Utah · 0.5u · −115 Why: Salt Lake forecast: wind 15-20 mph, gusts past 30, rain chance near 60%. —

NFL Week 4 6–5–2 Close logged on 8: beat 2 · = 5 · missed 1 +0.30u

NY Jets +3.5 NY Jets @ Chicago · 2u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +3.5
= L
−2.00u

Under 43.5 Tennessee @ Baltimore · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close 42.5
Beat W
+0.91u

Las Vegas +4.5 Kansas City @ Las Vegas · 1u · −108 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +4.5
= W
+0.93u

LA Chargers +7 LA Chargers @ Seattle · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +7
= P
0.00u

Green Bay -3.5 Green Bay @ Tampa Bay · 1u · −112 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close −3
Missed L
−1.00u

Indianapolis -4 Indianapolis @ Washington · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close −4.5
Beat W
+0.91u

Philadelphia +3.5 LA Rams @ Philadelphia · 1u · −108 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +3.5
= L
−1.00u

Jordan Addison Over 49.5 rec yds Miami @ Minnesota · 2u · −115 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W
+1.74u

Bucky Irving Over 58.5 rush yds Green Bay @ Tampa Bay · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W
+0.91u

Josh Downs Over 44.5 rec yds Indianapolis @ Washington · 1u · −115 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — L
−1.00u

Emeka Egbuka Under 52.5 rec yds Green Bay @ Tampa Bay · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W
+0.91u

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 71.5 rush yds Detroit @ Carolina · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — L
−1.00u

Green Bay -3 Green Bay @ Tampa Bay · 1u · −112 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close −3
= P
0.00u

CFB Week 5 1–2 Close logged on 3: beat 1 · = 2 · missed 0 −1.13u

Northwestern +3 Penn State @ Northwestern · 1u · −115 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +3
= W
+0.87u

Auburn +7 Auburn @ Tennessee · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +6.5
Beat L
−1.00u

Iowa +14.5 Ohio State @ Iowa · 1u · −110 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +14.5
= L
−1.00u

NFL Week 3 4–5 Close logged on 5: beat 3 · = 2 · missed 0 −0.45u

Chicago +4.5 Philadelphia @ Chicago · 2u · −110 Why: Williams DNP / doubtful. close +3.5
Beat W
+1.82u

Buffalo -7 LA Chargers @ Buffalo · 1u · −110 Why: Stay on 7. close −7
= W
+0.91u

James Cook Over 79.5 rush yds LA Chargers @ Buffalo · 1u · −110 Why: Bills script vs dinged Chargers interior. — W
+0.91u

Malik Nabers Under 69.5 rec yds Tennessee @ NY Giants · 1u · −110 Why: Winston at QB. Week 2 already one catch. — W
+0.91u

Seattle -7.5 Seattle @ Washington · 1u · −110 Why: Daniels OUT. close −8.5
Beat L
−1.00u

Tennessee +2.5 Tennessee @ NY Giants · 1u · −110 Why: Dart out. Open NYG -6.5 now -2.5. close +2.5
= L
−1.00u

New Orleans -3 Las Vegas @ New Orleans · 1u · −110 Why: Key 3. Dome. close −3.5
Beat L
−1.00u

Cam Skattebo Under 46.5 rush yds Tennessee @ NY Giants · 1u · −115 Why: Dart out. Book still prices starter-QB run game. — L
−1.00u

Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 receptions Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh · 1u · −120 Why: Bengals 32nd vs TEs. — L
−1.00u

CFB Week 4 5–3 Close logged on 7: beat 0 · = 3 · missed 4 +1.51u

Georgia -13.5 Oklahoma @ Georgia · 1u · −110 Why: Open -10. close −11.5
Missed W
+0.91u

Tennessee +4.5 Texas @ Tennessee · 1u · −110 Why: Open TEX -6.5. Neyland. close +5.5
Missed W
+0.91u

Tennessee +5.5 Texas @ Tennessee · 1u · −110 Why: Packet was +4.5. Consensus now TEX -5.5. close +5.5
= W
+0.91u

LSU -8.5 Texas A&M @ LSU · 1u · −110 Why: A&M off Kentucky. close −8.5
= W
+0.91u

Jadan Baugh Over 92.5 rush yds Ole Miss @ Florida · 1u · −115 Why: Florida home run-game script. — W
+0.87u

Under 38.5 Iowa @ Michigan · 1u · −110 Why: Two ranked fronts. close 39.5
Missed L
−1.00u

USC +3 Oregon @ USC · 1u · −110 Why: Open ORE -5.5 now -3. close +3.5
Missed L
−1.00u

USC +3.5 Oregon @ USC · 1u · −110 Why: Packet was USC +3. Hook to +3.5 overnight. close +3.5
= L
−1.00u

NFL Week 2 5–2 Close logged on 4: beat 0 · = 3 · missed 1 +3.74u

Patriots -5.5 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close −4.5
Missed W
+0.91u

Irving o14.5 att Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W
+0.91u

Taylor o15 rec Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W
+0.91u

Kelce ATD +210 Game not logged · 1u · +210 Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W
+2.10u

MNF Under 47.5 MNF (teams not named in archive) · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close 47.5
= W
+0.91u

Cardinals +3.5 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +3.5
= L
−1.00u

PHI/TEN Under 39.5 PHI/TEN · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close 39.5
= L
−1.00u

CFB Week 3 4–4 Close logged on 6: beat 0 · = 6 · missed 0 +0.36u

Houston +7.5 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +7.5
= W
+0.91u

Arizona State -5.5 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close −5.5
= W
+0.91u

Alabama ML live Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — W

New Mexico +21.5 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +21.5
= W
+0.91u

UNC +3 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close +3
= L
−1.00u

MIA/WAKE Over 55.5 MIA/WAKE · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close 55.5
= L
−1.00u

LSU -3 Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). close −3
= L
−1.00u

Friday dart parlay Game not logged · 1u Why: Reason not logged for this pick (posted before the public ledger started). — L
−1.00u

Beat our number was better than the close= matched the closeMissed the close was better

Units: a win pays units × 100 ÷ price (or × price ÷ 100 on plus prices), a loss costs the units risked, a push is 0. Week totals are rounded to 0.01u, then summed, same as every past post. Pushes are left out of units risked and ROI. Doubled tickets count as separate picks. Closing lines are only counted where they were logged. Rows are never deleted; corrections are logged.