Lesson 5 of 12 · 4 min read
Key numbers in football
Why 3 and 7 matter so much, with real counts from 11 NFL seasons.
Football is scored in chunks: 3 for a field goal, 7 for a touchdown and extra point. So games don’t end on every margin equally. A few margins come up far more often than the rest. These are Glossary Key numbers Final margins that come up much more often than others. In the NFL, 3 and 7 by a wide margin, then numbers like 6, 10 and 14. Moving a line across one matters more. Full glossary .
What 11 seasons of NFL games show
We counted every completed NFL game from the 2015 to 2025 seasons, regular season and playoffs: 3,028 games. Here’s how often each final margin came up (most common first):
Source: our count from the free nflverse games file, 2015-2025 (3,028 games; 10 ties left out of the chart). We start at 2015, the season the extra point moved back.
About 14.8% of games ended with a 3-point margin, and 8.7% with 7. Together that’s 23.5%, close to 1 game in 4. Next come margins like 6, 14 and 10: a touchdown with a missed kick or two field goals, two touchdowns, and a touchdown plus a field goal.
Why it matters: the hook around 3
Because so many games land on 3, the Glossary Hook The half point, as in −6.5 or +3.5. It makes a push impossible, and on key numbers it can be worth a lot. Full glossary Lesson: Spreads around it is worth more than a half point anywhere else.
Across a full point, the most common result in football goes from a win, to a Glossary Push The result lands exactly on the number, like a 7-point win on a −7 spread. It’s a tie: the stake comes back, no win or loss. Full glossary Lesson: Spreads , to a loss.
In the same data, when the listed spread was exactly 3, the favorite won by exactly 3 in 44 of 433 games (about 10%). Each of those was a push at 3, a win at −2.5 and a loss at −3.5. That’s why you’ll often see books change the price (say, from −110 to −120) instead of moving the number off 3.
Totals are flatter
Combined scores spread out much more. In this data, no single total showed up in more than about 4% of games. A half point on a total usually matters less than a half point on a spread near 3 or 7.
College football
The scoring chunks are the same, so 3 and 7 still matter in college. But margins are spread out more, with bigger talent gaps and more lopsided games, so each key number matters less than in the NFL. We haven’t run the same count for college here, so we’re not putting a number on it.
Quick checkYou like the Owls. Would you rather have +2.5 or +3.5?Tap to see the answer
+3.5, by a lot. If the Owls lose by exactly 3, the most common NFL margin, +3.5 wins and +2.5 loses.
Key takeaways
- In the NFL, about 14.8% of games end on a 3-point margin and 8.7% on 7, from our count of 3,028 games.
- Getting the hook around 3 or 7 is worth more than a half point anywhere else.
- Books often move the price instead of the number near 3 and 7.
- Totals are flatter, and college margins are more spread out, so key numbers matter less there.
Info, not advice. Examples use made-up teams and lines. 21+ | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.