Football Research DeskNFL · College football

Thursday, Oct 8 · NFL Week 5 · CFB Week 6

This week

FRD’s picks, the record behind them, and what the market is doing.

FRD record25–21–2 Units+4.33u Win rate54%
FRD picks publish Friday 3:00 PM ET ·

FRD picks

Baltimore +3.5 Baltimore @ Atlanta · Sun 8:20 ET 1u · −118 Now +3.5 · Fri 2:34 PM ET Why: Line swung 10 pts on Lamar Jackson's ankle. We take the hook past 3.
Under 40 Cleveland @ NY Jets · Sun 1:00 ET 1u · −115 Moved our way · Now 39.5 · Fri 2:34 PM ET Why: Rain near 90% from the 2nd quarter on. Total flat since the forecast.
UCLA +11.5 UCLA @ Oregon · Sat 3:30 ET 0.5u · −107 Moved our way · Now +10.5 · 2:33 PM ET Why: Oregon QB Dante Moore expected out (concussion). Line has moved only 1 pt.
Under 51.5 Kansas @ Utah · Sat 8:00 ET 0.5u · −115 Moved our way · Now 50.5 · 9:16 AM ET Why: Salt Lake forecast: wind 15-20 mph, gusts past 30, rain chance near 60%.
Under 43.5 Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh · Sun 1:00 ET 1u · −105 Now 43.5 · Fri 2:34 PM ET Why: Storms in the Pittsburgh forecast all game. Total barely moved.
Under 58.5 South Carolina @ Florida · Sat 12:45 ET 1u · −105 Why: Storms likely in Gainesville by the second half.
Vanderbilt +9.5 Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt · Sat 3:30 ET 0.5u · −105 Now +9.5 · 2:33 PM ET Why: Line moved Vandy's way since open. Nashville rain likely.

A play qualifies only when our number disagrees with the market. No set number each week. How we pick

New to betting? Start Here12 short lessons, about 47 min: odds, spreads, key numbers, the closing line, bankroll and playing safe.

What’s moving Real

CFB·Spread 2 ptsReal

Duke @ Georgia Tech

Spread moved from Duke −6.5 to −4.5; total from 43.5 to 45.5 since our first snapshot.

Latest pull Sat, Oct 10 · 2:33 PM ET · market consensus
CFB·Spread 1.5 ptsReal

Tulsa @ Navy

Spread moved from Navy −1.5 to −3 since our first snapshot.

Latest pull Sat, Oct 10 · 2:33 PM ET · market consensus
CFB·Spread 2 ptsReal

Syracuse @ Virginia

Spread moved from Virginia −9.5 to −11.5 since our first snapshot.

Latest pull Sat, Oct 10 · 9:16 AM ET · market consensus
CFB·Spread 1.5 ptsReal

Maryland @ Ohio State

Spread moved from Ohio State −33 to −31.5 since our first snapshot.

Latest pull Sat, Oct 10 · 2:33 PM ET · market consensus
CFB·Spread 1 ptReal

North Dakota State @ UNLV

Spread moved from North Dakota State −3.5 to −2.5 since our first snapshot.

Latest pull Sat, Oct 10 · 9:16 AM ET · market consensus
CFB·Spread 1.5 ptsReal

Delaware @ Middle Tennessee

Spread moved from Middle Tennessee −1.5 to PK since our first snapshot.

Latest pull Sat, Oct 10 · 9:16 AM ET · market consensus

Your desk

Latest results

Sat 12:45 ET · SECN FRD pick#16 CFB
FRD Under 58.5 · 1u
South Carolina +10.5
#16Florida −10.5
Total 59 58.5 → 59
Spread −11.5 → −10.5
FRD PICK
Ask FRD
Sat 12:00 ET · ABC #14Total moved 2 CFB
Texas A&M +4
#14Missouri −4
Total 50.5 48.5 → 50.5
Spread −3.5 → −4
No flags Ask FRD
Sat 12:00 ET · FOX #7 CFB
#7Indiana −8.5
Nebraska +8.5
Total 48.5 48 → 48.5
Spread −7.5 → −8.5
No flags Ask FRD
Fri 10:30 ET · ESPNFinal #8 CFB
Iowa State +11.5 10
#8BYU −11.5 24
Total 46.5 45.5 → 46.5
Spread −10.5 → −11.5
No flags Ask FRD
Thu 8:15 ET · PrimeFinal TNF NFL
Tampa Bay +9.5 24
Dallas −9.5 16
Total 47.5
No flags Ask FRD

Up next Sat, Oct 10

Sat 3:30 ET · ABC #1Total moved 2 CFB
#1Texas −7.5
Oklahoma +7.5
Total 41.5 39.5 → 41.5
Spread
Hook 7
Ask FRD
Sat 3:30 ET · NBC #3NBC CFB
Stanford +40
#3Notre Dame −40
Total 55.5 54.5 → 55.5
Spread −39.5 → −40
No flags Ask FRD
Sat 3:30 ET · ESPN FRD pick#9 CFB
FRD Vanderbilt +9.5 · 0.5u
Now +9.5
#9Ole Miss −9.5
Vanderbilt +9.5
Total 54.5
Spread
FRD PICK
Ask FRD
Sat 3:30 ET · CBS FRD pick#13 v #21 CFB
FRD UCLA +11.5 · 0.5u
Moved our way · Now +10.5
#21UCLA +10.5
#13Oregon −10.5
Total 57.5 59.5 → 57.5
Spread −11.5 → −10.5
FRD PICK
Ask FRD
Sat 4:15 ET · BTN #5Line moved 1.5 CFB
Maryland +31.5
#5Ohio State −31.5
Total 56.5
Spread −33 → −31.5
FRD lean
Ask FRD
Sat 7:00 ET · ESPN #10 CFB
#10LSU −8.5
Kentucky +8.5
Total 50.5 51.5 → 50.5
Spread
No flags Ask FRD
All 8 games that day →