Plain-language method
How we pick
We build our own number for every game, post only the plays where it disagrees with the market (no set number each week), size every play in units, and grade every pick against the closing line. Full record, losses included.
We build our own number
For every game we build our own line, independent of the market. The inputs are things anyone can follow: injuries, weather, matchups and how the line is moving.
We only play when it disagrees with the market
A play qualifies only when our number disagrees with the market. If they roughly agree, we pass. Most games are passes, and we never add plays to fill out a card.
We size every play in units
Every pick is published with a unit size, so the record reads the same whatever you bet. Units, never dollars.
We publish Friday, only what qualifies
The FRD card goes out Friday 3:00 PM ET with only the plays that qualify, each with a short plain-language reason. There is no set number. The card tops out around 8 sides and totals and 3 player props, and that includes any Early Play (at most 2 a week). Light weeks say so. Some weeks nothing qualifies, and we post “No plays this week” with the closest games we passed on. Weekend Gameday updates can add a play on late news.
We grade every pick in public
Every published pick is graded win, loss or push, and against the closing line. Full record, losses included.
When nothing qualifies
A week with no plays still gets a card at Friday 3:00 PM ET. It looks like this (made-up teams):
No plays this weekExample
Nothing qualified, so we pass. Passing is part of the process.
Closest games we passed on
- Hawks @ OwlsPrice moved past where we'd play.
- State U @ TechInjury status unresolved.
- Bears @ WolvesWeather uncertainty.
Same rule every week: a play goes on the card only when our number disagrees with the market.
What you’ll see on every pick
- The pick, the line and the price
- Units risked
- A short reason based on public facts: injuries, weather, matchup or line movement
- The result, and whether we beat, matched (=) or missed the closing line
What we won’t do
- Promise wins. Nobody can, and most bettors lose over time.
- Post a set number of picks every week. Passing is part of the process.
- Fade “the public” based on ticket counts alone
- Chase a number that already moved
- Bet weather in a dome or on a quiet 70° day
- Hide losses or delete rows. Corrections are logged.
- Push betting operators or their offers
Glossary
- Spread
- Points a favorite must win by. “Dallas −9.5” means Dallas must win by 10 or more.
- Total (Over/Under)
- Combined points scored by both teams.
- −110 (the price)
- At −110 you risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit; the extra is the book’s cut.
- Unit (u)
- A standard bet size. We track everything in units, not dollars: +4.33u means 4.33 standard bets ahead.
- Key numbers
- 3 and 7, the most common NFL winning margins. Moving across them matters most.
- Hook
- The half point (e.g. +3.5). It turns a push into a win.
- Line movement
- How a number changes from open to kickoff, driven by news and money.
- Beat the close (CLV)
- Getting a better number than the final line before kickoff. The best long-run sign of a good bet. “=” means you matched it.
- Push
- Lands exactly on the number. Your stake is returned.
- Prop
- A bet on one player’s stat, like receiving yards.
- ROI
- Units won divided by units risked. Pushes are left out.